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The Earth’s upper atmosphere (85–550 km) is the nearest region of geospace and is highly dynamic in nature. Neutral winds impact a large portion of the dynamics in this region. They play a critical role in determining the state of the ionosphere-thermosphere system at almost all latitudes and altitudes. Their influences range from wave breaking/dissipation in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere to global redistribution of energy and momentum deposited at high latitudes by the magnetosphere. Despite their known importance, global geospace neutral winds have remained one of the least sampled state parameters of the Earth’s upper atmosphere and are still poorly characterized even after multiple decades of observations. This paper presents an overview of historical neutral wind measurements and the critical need for their global height-resolved measurements. Some satellite missions are still operational and deliver valuable information on the contribution of neutral winds in global atmospheric dynamics. However, many significant gaps remain in their global monitoring, and our current understanding of the drivers of neutral winds is incomplete. We discuss the challenges posed by these measurement gaps in understanding geospace physics and weather. Further, we propose some wind observation solutions, including the simultaneous operations of upcoming NASA DYNAMIC and GDC missions as well as support for the development of ground-based observing methodologies, that will lead to fundamental advances in geospace science and address humanity’s emerging space needs. 

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models are universal function approximators and—if used correctly—can summarize the information content of observational data sets in a functional form for scientific and engineering applications. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no a priori assumptions about particular basis functions which can potentially limit the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three data sets: the Space Environment Technologies High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched data set of outputs from the Jacchia‐Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer‐derived density data set from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post‐storm cooling in the middle‐thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008‐ML do not account for post‐storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g., the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM‐ML and CHAMP‐ML do show evidence of post‐storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original data sets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1–3 days post‐storm depending on the location and strength of the storm. 

The great American total solar eclipse of 21 August 2017 offered a fortuitous opportunity to study the response of the atmosphere and ionosphere using a myriad of ground instruments. We have used the network of U.S. Global Positioning System receivers to examine perturbations in maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC). Coherent large-scale variations in TEC have been interpreted by others as gravity wave-induced traveling ionospheric disturbances. However, the solar disk had two active regions at that time, one near the center of the disk and one at the edge, which resulted in an irregular illumination pattern in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV)/X-ray bands. Using detailed EUV occultation maps calculated from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images, we show excellent agreement between TEC perturbations and computed gradients in EUV illumination. The results strongly suggest that prominent large-scale TEC disturbances were consequences of direct EUV modulation, rather than gravity wave-induced traveling ionospheric disturbances. 

Abstract The EXospheric TEMperatures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid (EXTEMPLAR) method predicts the neutral densities in the thermosphere. The performance of this model has been evaluated through a comparison with the Air Force High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). The Space Environment Technologies (SET) HASDM database that was used for this test spans the 20 years 2000 through 2019, containing densities at 3 hr time intervals at 25 km altitude steps, and a spatial resolution of 10° latitude by 15° longitude. The upgraded EXTEMPLAR that was tested uses the newer Naval Research Laboratory MSIS 2.0 model to convert global exospheric temperature values to neutral density as a function of altitude. The revision also incorporated time delays that varied as a function of location, between the total Poynting flux in the polar regions and the exospheric temperature response. The density values from both models were integrated on spherical shells at altitudes ranging from 200 to 800 km. These sums were compared as a function of time. The results show an excellent agreement at temporal scales ranging from hours to years. The EXTEMPLAR model performs best at altitudes of 400 km and above, where geomagnetic storms produce the largest relative changes in neutral density. In addition to providing an effective method to compare models that have very different spatial resolutions, the use of density totals at various altitudes presents a useful illustration of how the thermosphere behaves at different altitudes, on time scales ranging from hours to complete solar cycles.